[VGL NA] 2nd Qualifier Preview: The Fight for Live Finals

The next three weekends will reveal which North American teams will be attending the live finals this year. With higher point rewards than the previous qualifier, there’s still plenty of potential for upsets and dark horses.  Let’s take a look at how things are shaping up.

First, here are the current standings:

As a reminder, only the top eight teams will be going to live finals. It’s worth noting that GankStars Sirius, Alliance, and Nemesis Hydra have each earned enough points that it will be impossible for them to be knocked out of the live finals, so their spots are secured. While I’m sure these three teams will still be working hard during this qualifier, the main focus will be determining which teams will fill the remaining five slots.

The point awards this time around are as follows:

• 1st: guaranteed spot in live finals
• 2nd: 100 points
• 3rd: 85 points
• 4th: 55 points
• 5th – 8th: 35 points
• 9th – 16th: 15 points

Catherine Bracket

In the top half of the bracket, it would be a largely improbable upset if the champion of the previous qualifier and previous world champions, Gankstars Sirius, didn’t go into the quarterfinals (the end of the bracket). Unfortunately, this spells trouble for all the other teams in the top half of the bracket who might have aspirations.

In the bottom half of the bracket, we’re destined to see a grudge match between HH Kinetic and VON Menace. If you don’t recall, Kinetic was a brand new team for Halcycon Hammers in the previous qualifier and seeded as 6th in the bracket. They surprised us all by beating VON Menace (first seed) in the previous quarterfinals and going on to receive fourth place for the entire qualifier.

Assuming we do not see any wild and crazy upsets, expect to see this bracket conclude with Sirius and Menace facing off in the quarterfinals, with Sirius moving on to the semifinals.

Adagio Bracket

In the top half of the bracket, it’s very unlikely that any of the available teams are going to prevent current VIPL champions, Alliance, from going to the quarterfinals. This is unfortunate for any of those teams who are hoping to go to live finals.

In the bottom half, Vertigo Black and Team Penetrate will brawl to enter quarterfinals. While Team Penetrate is certainly a good team, they are the underdog against Vertigo Black’s lineup of strong veterans.

Assuming we do not see any wild and crazy upsets, expect to see Alliance and Vertigo Black facing off in the quarterfinals, with Alliance moving on to the semifinals.

Ozo Bracket

In this bracket, Team Phoenix enters the esports scene of NA with two fairly high-seeded teams: TPHX Reborn and TPHX Rising. While the teams themselves are largely unproven, they include members who were previously a part of better-known teams, such as Liberation Y and Necessary Secret.

In the top half of this bracket, Nemesis Hydra is looking to be the team to beat and they looked very strong in the previous qualifier, taking 3rd place. However, while I find it unlikely another team will prevent them for going to the quarterfinals, I don’t think it’s impossible for an upset here. TPHX Reborn is still largely an unknown andthe folks at VGL rated them as the fourth seed, so it’s possible we have a dark horse on our hands. Also, GankStars Polaris has a strong – albeit slightly revised – lineup, with their laner, Koedz, moving over to GankStars Vega (in the Ringo bracket).

In the bottom half, HH Velocity is the acting flagship team for Halcyon Hammers and the team to watch. Once again, the primary competition here is one of the new Phoenix teams, TPHX Rising, who is largely an unknown factor, but received a strong rating as the third seed from the tournament coordinators.

Assuming we do not see any wild and crazy upsets, expect to see Nemesis Hydra and HH Velocity facing off in the quarterfinals, with Hydra moving on to the semifinals.

Ringo Bracket

In the top half of the bracket, GankStars Vega had a strong showing in the previous qualifier, but with recent roster changes – FooJee moving to GankStars Sirius and Koedz joining as his replacement – it’s possible we’ll see a different level of performance, for better or for worse. Nonetheless, it’s expected we’ll see Vega in the quarterfinals.

In the bottom half, expect to see a grudge match between Liberation X and Team Smurf Vainguard. In probably one of the biggest upsets of VGL NA, during the the previous qualifier, Vainguard (then eighth seed) took down Liberation X, who were the champions of last season’s live finals and first seed. However, the last time these two teams faced, Liberation X’s star laner, ttigers, wasn’t available, who is possibly one of the best laners/players in North America. After leaving the 1st qualifier with 0 points, Liberation X will be hungry to not only win a spot in the quarterfinals, but to take a top 3 spot for the 2nd qualifier and, ultimately, secure a spot in the live finals.

Assuming we do not see any wild and crazy upsets, expect to see GankStars Vega and Liberation X facing off in the quarterfinals, with Liberation X moving on to the semifinals.

Final Predictions

Upsets and dark horses aside, this is the currently predicted outcome of the 2nd qualifier:

Notably, the expectation is to see Liberation X make their first appearance in the standings for this season and bump one of the current top teams – most likely Team Penetrate – out of the top eight. Even if Liberation X were to secure fourth place (55 points), they would still be able to find their way into live finals; however, anything less than that and they’ll be left behind. Since HH Force and The Sillys did not registered for this 2nd qualifier, we’ve highlighted them in red, but kept them in the rankings.

In the end, it’s the upsets and dark horses that help keep things fresh and exciting, so let’s hope this whole prediction gets flipped on its head and becomes obsolete by the end of the qualifier. Best wishes and good luck to the underdog teams out there. Keep those incumbent teams on their toes!

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The round of 64 will begin on Saturday, February 13th at 1pm PST. You can watch the streamed matches on the VaingloryLeague Twitch channel.